National Association of
Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc.
PO Box 771203 - Houston, Texas 77215-1203

NAPM - HOUSTON BUSINESS REPORT

For further information, contact:
Douglas R. Miller, C.P.M. - 713-988-7306

Press Release

HOUSTON ECONOMY REBOUNDING

SALES ENDS SLIDE

JOB LOSS SLOWING

..........HOUSTON March 11th, - The February PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) clearly indicates a turnaround in process in Houston's economy. The PMI for February is 48.5, a full point better than January's 47.5. The PMI has been in negative territory for five months after previously reflecting economic expansion for 31 consecutive months.

..........The Houston PMI, which can range from 0 to 100, is a leading indicator for industrial production, typically forecasting change by three to four months. A reading above 50 indicates that the Houston economy is generally expanding. A reading below 50 indicates the economy is generally contracting. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of some 80 purchasing executives in leading Houston industries, including oil and gas exploration and production, manufacturing, engineering and construction, chemicals, distribution, business and financial services and healthcare, among others.

.........."Sales and Production are leading the way out of what is turning out to be a very brief period of contraction in the Houston economy," said Doug Miller, Chairman of the NAPM-Houston Business Survey Committee. "It appears that we now have turned the corner at the bottom and have a substantial foundation for getting completely out of the hole. And, the Employment component seems to be following the Sales and Production numbers toward a growth level which should be evident in the next two-three months."

..........There are eight components of the PMI, including Sales, Production, Employment, Purchases, Prices Paid, and Inventory levels.

.........."At this point it looks like Houston has fared the national recession very well with only a shallow, short term dip in the economy, whereas much of the rest of Texas has been affected much more and for much longer than has Houston," said Miller. "We could see Houston back into an overall growth mode within the next sixty days."

The NAPM-Houston Business Report began publication in January 1995.
Subscriptions to the report are available through NAPM-Houston.
National Association of Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc. is an affiliate
Of the Institute for Supply Management
Copyright 2002 by NAPM-Houston, Inc. All Rights Reserved