| National Association of |
| Purchasing Management - Houston, Inc. |
| PO Box 771203 - Houston, Texas
77215-1203
|
NAPM - HOUSTON BUSINESS REPORT |
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|
Press
Release |
| ECONOMY WAVERS;
SLOWS |
| JOBS DOWN FOR
THE 12TH MONTH |
| ..........HOUSTON, October 10th - The Houston
economy slid below the breakeven point in September after
four months of growth. The Houston PMI (Purchasing
Managers Index) was 48.8 for the month compared to 53.0
in August. The Sales component of the PMI fell in
September after rising in August to its fastest growth
rate since August 2001. .......The Houston PMI, which can range from 0 to 100, is a leading indicator for industrial production, typically forecasting change by three to four months. A reading above 50 indicates that the Houston economy is generally expanding. A reading below 50 indicates the economy is generally contracting. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of some 80 purchasing executives in leading Houston industries, including oil and gas exploration and production, manufacturing, engineering and construction, chemicals, distribution, business and financial services and healthcare, among others. .........“Sales and Production rates both fell in September after appearing to ready themselves for a period of sustained growth," said Doug Miller, Chairman of the Business Survey Committee for NAPM-Houston. "What we may be seeing in the next few months is more fluctuation of these categories as they struggle to find reasons for other than stagnation. As long as these conditions persist it is not likely that the twelve month decline in employment will find cause to reverse its pattern. " ...........There are eight components of the PMI, including Sales, Production, Employment, Purchases, Prices Paid, and Inventory levels. .........“The best news this month may be that inflation is close to non-existing," said Miller. "Houston's economic ship is suffering from continuing rudder problems and in addition it seems to be running on only one engine. Is that because of engine breakdown or lack of fuel? Certainly we now see concern developing regarding the prospects for economic growth as Houston prepares to enter 2003." |
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